A Monte Carlo Study of Pairwise Comparisons

نویسندگان

  • Michael W. Herman
  • Waldemar W. Koczkodaj
چکیده

Making comparative judgments of intangible stimuli or criteria (e.g. the degree of an environmental hazard or pollution factors) involves not only imprecise or inexact knowledge but also inconsistency in our own judgements. The improvement of knowledge elicitation by controlling the inconsistency of experts’ judgments is not only desirable but absolutely necessary. Due to space limitations, the reader’s familiarity with [3] is assumed although this paper is not a continuation of [3] but addresses different aspects of the same theory. Only the essential concepts of the pairwise comparison method are presented here. The basic model of knowledge engineering is based on teamwork in which a knowledge engineer mediates between human experts and the knowledge base. The knowledge engineer elicits knowledge from the experts, refines it with the experts, and represents it in the knowledge base. Arrow’s impossibility theorem states that no solution to the problem of a group ranking exists under general assumptions (see [1, 4]); however, a constructive algorithm exists under modified (but still practical) assumptions when we are able to compare the stimuli in pairs. The pairwise comparison methodology introduced by Thurstone in 1927 (see [12]) can be used as a powerful inference tool and knowledge acquisition technique in knowledge-based systems. Some of the notable applications are related to projects of national importance, e.g., decisions on nuclear power plants in Holland ([8]) and a transportation system in Sudan([10]). The practical and theoretical virtue of the pairwise comparison methodology is its simplicity. The goal of pairwise comparisons is to establish the relative preferences of n stimuli in situations in which it is impractical (or sometimes even meaningless) to provide estimates

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عنوان ژورنال:
  • Inf. Process. Lett.

دوره 57  شماره 

صفحات  -

تاریخ انتشار 1996